The New York Giants enter Week 15 riding the coattails of last week’s epic win on Monday night. They take their 5-8 SU record and slim playoff hopes indoors to face Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints, who sit as 5.5-point home favorites despite dropping three of their last four.
Even with all the hoopla coming from last week, Tommy DeVito is a decent dog on Sunday and has perfect passing conditions, which could lead to an increase in passing volume and efficiency. Is backing the New York quarterback on a short week the move for Week 15?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Saints on Sunday, December 17.
Giants vs Saints odds
Giants vs Saints predictions
The entire New York Giants offense is projecting well indoors this weekend as a decent 5.5-point dog vs. a New Orleans Saints defense that is still without two starters in the secondary in Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Maye.
Tommy DeVito is playing with a little more confidence too following last week’s epic performance. Sometimes that will artificially drive up NFL player prop markets, but that isn’t the case this week with the Tommy DeVito odds, and his receivers have both game script and an indoor setting in their favor. The New York QB even made it through a game without being sacked last week, which has been a big issue.
THE BLITZ is projecting Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Wan’Dale Robinson Overs by at least a 22% margin, and that’s without Darren Waller projected out. The TE is designated to return, but even if he does play, the bump will be on the receivers and not the QB. DeVito has a passing total of just 178.5 yards this week, and the projections for him are Over 200 yards.
Oddsmakers continue to undervalue these backup QBs, and fewer people are betting into their markets because, let’s face it, it isn’t sexy. However, in prop betting, less sexy means less liquidity in the market, which also means greater +EV in spots like these.
This is still a season-high on his passing total, as it was 170.5 last week. But as backup QBs continue to show bettors each week, 200 yards is not a big threshold in a negative game script. This number might not be factoring in the indoor setting as much as it should. That alone is worth a significant bump in passing rate and efficiency. This is also a quarterback who has posted an 8.3 yards per pass attempt figure over his last three games, which would rank third in the league behind Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa.
The best case for this prop is that New York plays from behind. They’re coming in with a rest disadvantage and there’s a reason the Saints are 5.5-point favorites despite nobody wanting to back Derek Carr as a decent favorite. It also helps that New Orleans DE Cameron Jordan is banged-up and questionable considering DeVito’s issues with taking sacks.
This is not recency bias, and I’m not on the DeVito bandwagon. But with his improving receiver corps, a likely pass-heavy game script, and an indoor environment, DeVito is a great Over bet on Sunday, especially when THE BLITZ is backing seemingly every offensive passing Over on the Giants.
My best bet: Tommy DeVito Over 178.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Giants vs Saints same-game parlay
Tommy DeVito 200+ passing yardsIsaiah Hodgins Over 0.5 receptionsDarius Slayton 25+ receiving yards
+425 at bet365
This is a sexy little +425 correlated play that could be an easy winner if the Giants and DeVito have to play catch-up.
The New York QB’s efficiency has been unreal, and if the passing volume increases like THE BLITZ is projecting, a sub-20 completion game could still hit this mark. Isaiah Hodgins is still running as the No. 4 option but is getting looks when he does run routes. I love Over 0.5 reception markets.
Darius Slayton led Big Blue in snap%, route%, and routes last week. THE BLITZ is projecting 39.7 yards from him Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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